Vice President Kamala Harris’ ascension to the top of the ticket has reset the battle for the House, with Democrats feeling hopeful they can ride a new wave of energy to the majority and Republicans tempering their dreams of dramatically expanding the playing field.
Following President Joe Biden’s exit from the presidential race, both parties are bracing for an even tougher fight centered on a small group of competitive districts, as Democrats just need to net four seats to take control of the House.
Biden had been struggling in key battlegrounds even before his disastrous June debate performance, and he recently acknowledged to CBS News that his potential down-ballot drag contributed to his decision to drop out.
That drag had given some House Republicans confidence that they would not only hang on to their narrow majority, but push deeper into Democratic territory this fall.
Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said at a Politico event at the Republican National Convention last month that Republicans were eyeing districts Biden won by double digits in 2020, noting, “I think we can expand the map.”
Now, Hudson told NBC News in an interview this week, “I do think we’re in a different reality where the environment has tightened some,” acknowledging internal polling has shown the Democratic base consolidating around Harris.
Hudson, who described this election cycle as “a roller coaster,” was still confident that Republicans will keep their majority and pick up seats. He argued that voters will pin concerns about the cost of living and immigration on the Biden administration, and that Harris’ past liberal positions will turn off swing voters.
Among Democrats, however, there is palpable optimism among candidates and strategists about winning back House control. It’s a marked shift from just a few weeks ago, when vulnerable party lawmakers were dodging reporters at the Capitol to avoid questions about Biden.
Even with Biden in the race, Democrats still saw a path to the majority, noting that their candidates often performed better than him in the polls. But now, there is less pressure to outrun the top of the ticket with a more popular presidential nominee.
“We were in a strong position,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairwoman Suzan DelBene, of Washington, told NBC News this week. “We’re in a stronger position now.”
“The path for us has become much more clear, especially because we were running in districts that tend to lean more Democratic in the first place,” added Mike Smith, president of House Majority PAC, the main Democratic super PAC involved in House races.
From the outset of the election cycle, Democrats’ path to the majority ran through the 18 GOP-held House districts that Biden won four years ago, 10 of which are in historically blue California and New York. But Biden was still lagging in the polls, as voters voiced concerns about his age and Democrats reported low levels of enthusiasm.
Now, key parts of the Democratic coalition — young, Black, Latino and suburban women voters — are coming back to the party with Harris in the mix, Smith said.
“It’s those core groups that we need in order to win. And we’re seeing, already, upticks in most, if not all, of our internal polling in a lot of those districts,” Smith said.
Still, Democrats have little room for error in such a small and evenly divided battlefield. Of the 22 House seats the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates as “toss-ups,” 11 are held by Democrats and 11 are held by Republicans. Both parties have reserved $265 million in airtime across those 22 districts for ads after Labor Day, with Democrats spending $135 million to Republicans’ $130 million, according to the tracking firm AdImpact.
“The battle for the House is really competitive, but we feel like we’re in a strong position,” said Dan Conston, president of Congressional Leadership Fund, the main GOP super PAC involved in House races. “Our theory of the case all along was, this was a very tight map. There are just very few competitive seats in the country now, post-redistricting.”
“The same core seats at the start of the cycle are the same core seats now,” he added.
Democrats revitalized
Democrats running in competitive districts say the party’s renewed energy around defeating former President Donald Trump has manifested in a surge of donations and volunteers for the party as a whole.
“It’s hard to put into words how impactful the change at the top of the ticket has been in a positive way,” said Rep. Pat Ryan, of New York, one of the vulnerable Democrats who called on Biden to step aside. “I mean, it’s just like pouring jet fuel into a jet engine and it taking off. I have not ever seen anything like it.”
State Sen. Tony Vargas, the Democratic candidate in Nebraska’s competitive 2nd District, recalled his uncle relaying the news that Biden was dropping out while they were at a family reunion.
“He was excited that we can actually get back to talking about solving these problems,” Vargas said. “And we’re no longer talking about Biden’s age or fitness anymore, and can actually litigate the case against Trump.”
Vargas said around 100 volunteers knocked on doors the weekend after Biden dropped out of the race, and half of them were volunteering for the first time. Daily donations to his campaign quadrupled. Smith also said donor enthusiasm has “skyrocketed” in recent weeks.
That fundraising surge is especially concerning for Republicans, who have faced an onslaught of Democratic grassroots fundraising since Trump was first elected in 2016.
“The thing that keeps me awake at night is the Democrat money advantage,” Hudson said.
Hudson acknowledged that challenge of “supercharged Dem fundraising” during a GOP conference call Thursday night, telling the conference that now is the time to step up and “do more to capitalize on the opportunity to pick up seats,” according to a source on the call.
Republicans still optimistic
Hudson and other Republicans still say they have a good shot at holding onto the House, arguing Harris could be a liability for down-ballot Democrats.
The NRCC issued a memo to GOP lawmakers after Biden ended his campaign, calling on Republicans to label Harris “an extreme San Francisco progressive,” pointing to some positions she took during her failed 2020 presidential campaign, including her support for “Medicare for All” and opposition to fracking.
Some Republicans are already starting to follow that advice.
“They are the most radical ticket in American history,” said Alison Esposito, who is running against Ryan in New York’s 18th District.
A GOP group, Americans 4 Security PAC, recently launched a TV ad in California’s battleground 13th District saying Democrat Will Rollins “endorses Kamala Harris and her radical agenda.”
But that case could be tougher to make if the GOP’s chief messenger is focused elsewhere.
“Our nominee doesn’t do a good job keeping the spotlight on her positions in the past and just really, how bad, how far to the left she is,” said Rep. Don Bacon, of Nebraska, echoing other Republican criticism of Trump for not zeroing in on Harris’ policy record and instead making comments about her race, laugh and rally crowd sizes.
Economy and abortion persist as top issues
As one of those Republicans representing a district Biden won in 2020, Bacon is a top Democratic target again this year. He said his race against Vargas is a “dead heat,” but he said he believes the issues are on his side.
“Overall, the economy is the No. 1 issue here,” Bacon said, later adding that voters are “having to make a choice to pay in the utility bills or putting food on the table.”
Democrats acknowledge that a high cost of living remains a top concern for voters in battleground House districts, even as inflation has cooled.
“Every conversation I have is about the economic pressure people are facing,” said Ryan, the New York Democrat.
Smith, of House Majority PAC, said Democrats must proactively talk about the issue on the campaign trail, noting, “If you ignore an issue, that’s when we lose.”
Still, Democrats plan to go on offense on abortion and other issues in an attempt to paint the GOP as extreme.
“This is about our rights, our freedoms, our democracy and our future,” said DelBene, the DCCC chairwoman. “And the contrast between Republicans who want to take away reproductive freedom, who have been holding our economy hostage, who talked about cutting Social Security and Medicare, who have attacked voting rights.”
Democrats have already started to make that case. House Majority Forward, House Majority PAC’s nonprofit arm, launched a handful of ads in recent days alleging Republicans would support federal abortion bans.
“They’re trying to use those different campaigns to change the subject from the issues that the voters care about,” Hudson countered. “I mean, poll after poll, issues like border and inflation are much more important to voters than abortion.”
As those attacks begin to hit the airwaves, both parties say they have strong candidates with their own brands who can withstand these missives and separate themselves from the presidential race where necessary.
But in an election year when the race for the White House dominates the headlines, it could be tougher for House candidates to make their own cases to voters.
“I don’t care who you are, you’re waking up every morning to a tsunami of messages that you have no control over,” former DCCC Chairman Steve Israel said. “So it’s much more difficult to cut through that clatter.”
